Projected and Implied US Decarbonization Rates

us-projected

The graph above shows US rates of decarbonization (explained here). It shows:

  • 2018 actual = -0.01% (the US actually re-carbonized)
  • Projected 2019-2029 = 2.3%
  • Implied by an 50% reduction in US carbon dioxide emissions by 2030 = 8.4%
  • Implied by an 80% reduction in US carbon dioxide emissions by 2050 = 6.6%

Sources= EIA and CBO and assumes 2030-2050 US real GDP growth at 1.76% (i.e., same as CBO assumes 2019-2029). If you vary GDP assumption, decarbonization will change too.

Bottom line: Any climate policy proposal should be evaluated in terms of what it does to decarbonization rates. Show your math.

New Paper Accepted: Normalised Insurance Losses from Australian Natural Disasters: 1966-2017

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We have just had a new paper accepted for publication:

McAneney, J., B. Sandercock, R. Crompton, T. Mortlock, R. Musulin, R. Pielke, Jr., and A. Gissing. (2020, in press). Normalised Insurance Losses from Australian Natural Disasters: 1966-2017, Environmental Hazards.

Here is the bottom line: When aggregated by season, there is also no significant trend in normalised losses. This is also true if only weather-related event losses are considered; in other words, after we normalise weather-related losses for changes that we know to have taken place, no residual signal remains to be explained by changes in the occurrence of extreme weather events, regardless of cause. In sum, the rising cost of natural disasters is being driven by where and how we chose to live and with more people living in vulnerable locations with more to lose, natural disasters will remain an important problem irrespective of a warming climate.

Details after the break …

Continue reading “New Paper Accepted: Normalised Insurance Losses from Australian Natural Disasters: 1966-2017”

US Decarbonization: 1992-2018

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The figure above shows US rates of decarbonization 1992 to 2018. Decarbonization is a technical term that refers to a decrease in the ratio of carbon dioxide emissions to gross domestic product. The concept is derived from the Kaya Identity, which is a very powerful tool for understanding emissions and their potential to be reduced through policy action. This post provides an update on global decarbonization rates, based on new data from the EIA and OMB.

Continue reading “US Decarbonization: 1992-2018”

Global Decarbonization 2000-2018

DECARB1

Decarbonization is a technical term that refers to a decrease in the ratio of carbon dioxide emissions to gross domestic product. The concept is derived from the Kaya Identity, which is a very powerful tool for understanding emissions and their potential to be reduced through policy action. This post provides an update on global decarbonization rates, based on new data from the International Energy Agency.

Continue reading “Global Decarbonization 2000-2018”