The graph above shows US rates of decarbonization (explained here). It shows:
- 2018 actual = -0.01% (the US actually re-carbonized)
- Projected 2019-2029 = 2.3%
- Implied by an 50% reduction in US carbon dioxide emissions by 2030 = 8.4%
- Implied by an 80% reduction in US carbon dioxide emissions by 2050 = 6.6%
Sources= EIA and CBO and assumes 2030-2050 US real GDP growth at 1.76% (i.e., same as CBO assumes 2019-2029). If you vary GDP assumption, decarbonization will change too.
Bottom line: Any climate policy proposal should be evaluated in terms of what it does to decarbonization rates. Show your math.
Roger Pielke Jr. 